World Cup Quarter-Final Odds Tracker 2026
The biggest single move of the round of 16 belongs to England. Their Opta tournament-win probability climbed from 8.1% to 16.5%, roughly doubling in one match, and the market now prices them at 1.81 to beat Norway in Miami. These are the world cup quarter final odds that matter heading into the final eight.
Four matches. Three days. One country. The world cup quarter final 2026 runs from 9 to 11 July, with every tie staged on US soil. France meet Morocco, Spain take on Belgium, Norway face England, and Argentina square off against Switzerland. Here is where the prices stand and what moved to get here.
Steamers and Drifters
Spain are the tournament's biggest steamer. Their Opta win probability surged from 13.0% to 21.3% across the round of 16, a move driven by a fifth consecutive clean sheet and substitute Merino's 90+1' winner against Portugal. The market reflects it: Spain sit at 1.62 to beat Belgium, the odds on world cup quarter final shortest price among all four favorites bar France.
England's move is almost as dramatic. The 8.1-to-16.5 Opta shift is mirrored on Kalshi, where their tournament-winner share roughly doubled. Beating Mexico 3-2 at the Azteca with ten men will do that. At 1.81 to advance past Norway, the market has re-rated them sharply upward.
Norway are the quieter riser. Their Opta probability moved from 2.9% to 6.6%, and on Kalshi they have climbed from a pre-tournament 3.5% to 6.0% after knocking Brazil out 2-1 with Haaland scoring in the 79th and 90th minutes. At 4.30 to win in 90 minutes, the market still treats them as heavy underdogs despite that result.
Switzerland are the most eye-catching mover in percentage terms. Their Kalshi share nearly tripled, from 0.9% to 2.3%, after they became the first Swiss side to reach a World Cup quarter-final since 1954. They enter at 5.50 against Argentina, the longest price of the eight teams still standing. Belgium drifted slightly in the winner market despite their 4-1 demolition of the USA, sitting at 5.60 for 90 minutes against Spain.
France hold their ground at the top. Their Opta number actually ticked down marginally, from 28.9% to 27.3%, yet they command 34.1% of the Kalshi winner market. That divergence between model probability and public money is the sharpest signal in the data right now.
The Four Matches, Priced
Norway vs England (M99, 11 Jul, 17:00, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens) produced the round's biggest combined move: Norway eliminated Brazil 2-1, England beat Mexico 3-2 with ten men. England are 1.81, Norway 4.30, draw 3.75. Opta gives England a 62.4% chance to advance; Polymarket sits at 66%.
Spain vs Belgium (M98, 10 Jul, 12:00, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood) features the tournament's biggest steamer against a side that racked up a 4-1 scoreline. Spain are 1.62, Belgium 5.60, draw 3.95. Opta advances Spain at 69.7%; Polymarket has them at 75%.
Argentina vs Switzerland (M100, 11 Jul, 20:00, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City) pits the holders, who survived two successive comeback wins, against a Swiss team that won 4-3 on penalties against Colombia. Argentina are 1.72, Switzerland 5.50, draw 3.50. Opta gives Argentina a 69.1% advance probability; Polymarket lands at 74%.
France vs Morocco (M97, 9 Jul, 16:00, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough) is a rematch of the 2022 semi-final, a tie France won on the way to that final. France are 1.59, Morocco 6.20, draw 3.80. Opta gives France a 73.9% chance to reach the semis; Polymarket sits at 78%.
| Match | Home (1) | Draw (X) | Away (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| France vs Morocco | 1.59 | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| Spain vs Belgium | 1.62 | 3.95 | 5.60 |
| Norway vs England | 4.30 | 3.75 | 1.81 |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | 1.72 | 3.50 | 5.50 |
World Cup Quarter-Final Predictions
France vs Morocco: Money continues to flow toward France, and the model backs it. Mbappe has seven goals in the tournament and is now the all-time World Cup knockout-stage top scorer. Morocco's route here included a penalty win over the Netherlands and a 3-0 defeat of Canada, but the Opta and Polymarket consensus sits at roughly 74-78% for France. The call is France to advance.
Spain vs Belgium: Spain have not conceded in five matches. Belgium's De Ketelaere delivered two goals and an assist against the USA, but the market's 69.7-75% advance range for Spain reflects how dominant La Roja have looked. The call is Spain to advance, with Belgium's attacking threat making 90-minute coverage worth watching closely.
Norway vs England: This is the market's tightest call among the four favorites. England's 62.4% Opta advance probability is the lowest of the four top sides. Quansah's suspension following his red card against Mexico removes a key defensive option, and Norway's Haaland has scored in every World Cup match he has played in this tournament. The call leans England, but the gap is narrow enough that Norway at 4.30 for 90 minutes reflects genuine value for the upset.
Argentina vs Switzerland: Argentina have needed extra time twice in succession, beating Cabo Verde 3-2 after extra time and coming from 0-2 down to beat Egypt 3-2. Messi leads the Golden Boot race with eight goals. Switzerland's penalty shootout experience is real, having won 4-3 against Colombia, but Argentina's advance probability sits at 69.1-74% across the models. The call is Argentina to advance, though the draw at 3.50 carries weight given their recent pattern.
Quarter-Final Betting: Where the Value Moved
The clearest movement story is Spain. They shifted from 13.0% to 21.3% in Opta's model and still price at 1.62 for 90 minutes, meaning the market has absorbed the steamer but not fully closed it. Any bettor who tracked that move pre-round of 16 has already seen the price compress significantly. For those entering now, Spain's clean-sheet run across five games is the qualitative anchor for backing them to control Belgium.
Norway represent the most interesting value case among the underdogs. Their Opta probability moved from 2.9% to 6.6%, yet they sit at 4.30 for 90 minutes, implying approximately 23%. That gap between model probability and match odds is wider than the equivalent gaps for Morocco, Belgium, and Switzerland. Haaland scoring in every World Cup game he has played in this tournament is the form argument that supports the price.
The fade note sits with France. Their Kalshi market share of 34.1% sits well above their 27.3% Opta win probability. Public money is heavier on France than the model warrants, which compresses the value in backing them outright. Kalshi's winner market illustrates the gap clearly. Morocco at 6.20 for 90 minutes, implying roughly 16%, is not a lay-down bet, but the model's 26.1% advance figure suggests the outright match price slightly undervalues them.
Switzerland's near-triple on Kalshi, from 0.9% to 2.3%, shows how sharply sentiment shifted after their first quarter-final since 1954. At 5.50 against Argentina they remain a long shot, but the penalty shootout pedigree they showed against Colombia is a live weapon if Argentina's recent wobbles continue into extra time. Always set a budget before placing any bets and treat gambling as entertainment rather than a source of income.
FAQ
Which team's odds moved most before the quarter-finals?
Spain recorded the largest Opta probability jump, rising from 13.0% to 21.3% across the round of 16. England roughly doubled their share on both Opta and Kalshi, moving from 8.1% to 16.5% in the model. Switzerland nearly tripled on Kalshi, from 0.9% to 2.3%, the biggest relative gain of any team still in the tournament.
Who is the favorite in each quarter-final?
France are favored against Morocco at 1.59, Spain are favored against Belgium at 1.62, England are favored against Norway at 1.81, and Argentina are favored against Switzerland at 1.72. Opta's supercomputer gives all four favorites advance probabilities above 62% when extra time and penalties are included, making this the most top-heavy quarter-final set the model has produced in this tournament.
When are the 2026 World Cup quarter-finals?
The four quarter-finals take place on 9, 10, and 11 July 2026, all in the United States. France vs Morocco kicks off at 16:00 local time at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on 9 July. Spain vs Belgium follows at 12:00 local time at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on 10 July. Norway vs England kicks off at 17:00 local time at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on 11 July, and Argentina vs Switzerland closes the round at 20:00 local time at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on the same day. The full FIFA schedule and fixture list confirms all times and venues.