World Cup Semi-Final Odds Tracker: Latest Prices and Movers

Spain surge from 13.0 to 21.3 in Opta win probability between 4 July and 8 July is the biggest single move of the round of 16. England nearly double from 8.1 to 16.5, and on Kalshi, Switzerland nearly triple from 0.9 to 2.3 after reaching their first quarter-final since 1954. The world cup semi-final odds market looks nothing like it did a week ago.

Two world cup semi-final 2026 matches decide who reaches the final at MetLife Stadium. M101 kicks off on 14 July at 2:00 p.m. local time (UTC-5) at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, followed by M102 on 15 July at 3:00 p.m. local time (UTC-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Every world cup semi-final match is single elimination, with extra time and penalties if level after 90 minutes. France hold roughly a third of the entire Kalshi winner market and remain the team to beat.

Steamers and Drifters

The risers steam hard. Spain surge from 13.0 to 21.3 on the back of five matches without conceding a goal, including substitute Merino's 90+1 winner against Portugal. England drift upward from 8.1 to 16.5 after beating Mexico 3-2 at the Azteca with ten men, Bellingham scoring twice. Norway nearly double from 2.9 to 6.6 after Haaland's 79th and 90th-minute goals eliminate Brazil. On Kalshi, Switzerland nearly triple from 0.9 to 2.3, the most dramatic move in percentage terms across the entire odds on world cup semi-final market.

The drifter is France, who slip from 28.9 to 27.3 in Opta probability despite a 1-0 win over Paraguay. That drift is modest, and Kalshi still has France at roughly a third of the whole winner market, so the slide reads more like profit-taking than genuine concern. Argentina tick up from 16.3 to 17.3 and move back above Spain on Kalshi after surviving two straight comeback wins.

Three results drove the repricing. Spain's shutout run through five matches compressed their implied price sharply, rewarding backers who bought early. England's ten-man Azteca win, with Quansah dismissed and suspended for the quarter-final, proved the market had underestimated them. The Swiss shootout win over Colombia, their first quarter-final appearance since 1954, triggered the most violent Kalshi move of the round, a near-tripling in less than a week.

World Cup Semi-Final Odds Right Now

World Cup Semi-Final Predictions

France vs Spain (54.7% consensus probability)

France arrive as the market leader, Kalshi pricing them at 34.1% to lift the trophy. Mbappe has seven goals and is now the all-time World Cup knockout-stage top scorer. The squad has netted 14 times in five games, though Tchouameni remains injured and unavailable. Their 1-0 win over Paraguay was functional rather than flashy, which explains the mild Opta drift from 28.9 to 27.3.

Spain have not conceded in five matches and their Opta probability surges from 13.0 to 21.3, the biggest positive move of the round. Merino's 90+1 winner against Portugal confirmed this side can grind as well as dominate. It is Spain's first quarter-final since their 2010 title run. Money has moved toward Spain all week, yet France remain the implied favorite at quarter-final prices of 1.62 for Spain and 1.59 for France. Call: France edge it, but Spain's clean-sheet run makes this the most dangerous match in the bracket.

England vs Argentina (45.7% consensus probability)

Argentina are holders and Kalshi prices them at 18.8% to retain. Messi leads the Golden Boot with eight goals and is the all-time World Cup top scorer. Two straight escapes, 3-2 after extra time against Cabo Verde and a 3-2 comeback from 0-2 down against Egypt, show resilience but also vulnerability at the back. Their quarter-final odds of 1.72 reflect a team expected to advance but not cruise.

England's Opta probability nearly doubles from 8.1 to 16.5, a market steamer. Bellingham scored twice at the Azteca, Kane has six goals, and Pickford has been outstanding in goal. Quansah's suspension is the one confirmed selection concern for the quarter-final. The quarter-final line sits at 4.30 for Norway and 1.81 for England, suggesting the bracket route matters. Call: Argentina advance, but England's price movement signals the market sees this as genuinely open.

Norway vs Argentina (25.9% consensus probability)

Norway reach their first-ever World Cup quarter-final after Haaland scores in the 79th and 90th minutes to eliminate Brazil 2-1. Haaland has scored in every World Cup match he has played in this tournament. Their Opta probability roughly doubles from 2.9 to 6.6, and Kalshi moves them from pre-tournament levels near 3.5 to 6.0. The quarter-final line of 4.30 for Norway versus 1.81 for England reflects their underdog status, but the Brazil result proves they can hurt anyone.

Argentina's path to this pairing requires them to navigate England first, while Norway must beat England to get there. The 25.9% consensus probability for this semi-final combination is the third most likely outcome. Call: This pairing hinges on England's quarter-final, and the market currently leans against it materializing.

France vs Belgium (20.9% consensus probability)

Belgium rout the USA 4-1, De Ketelaere scoring twice and adding an assist, to reach their first quarter-final since the 2018 bronze run. Their Opta probability rises from 2.0 to 3.6. The quarter-final price of 1.62 for Spain against Belgium suggests their path through Los Angeles is steep. Polymarket prices Belgium at just 25% to reach the semi-finals.

France's route through Boston against Morocco, a 2022 semi-final rematch, is priced at 1.59 in the quarter-final market. Opta gives France a 73.9% chance of reaching the semi-finals, Polymarket says 78%. The Belgium pairing at 20.9% is the fourth most likely semi-final combination. Call: France reach the semi-final comfortably; Belgium's route through Spain is the bigger obstacle.

Semi-Final Betting: Where the Value Moved

The core principle from this round's movement is straightforward: steamers that move this fast tend to either correct or confirm. Spain's surge from 13.0 to 21.3 in Opta probability is the clearest example of a team whose price lagged their actual tournament performance. Backers who bought Spain before the Portugal match at compressed prices captured significant value before the market caught up.

Switzerland's Kalshi move from 0.9 to 2.3 is the fade candidate. Nearly tripling in implied probability after a penalty shootout win over Colombia is a sharp reaction, and shootout outcomes carry high variance. The market steamed on the emotion of a historic quarter-final appearance rather than a structural improvement in the team's win probability. Fading late steam driven by a single shootout result is a reasonable position when the underlying model, Opta at 30.9% to reach the semi-final, still prices Switzerland well below the top four. Always set deposit limits and only wager amounts you are comfortable losing.

FAQ

Which team's World Cup odds moved the most after the round of 16?
Spain recorded the biggest Opta probability surge, rising from 13.0 to 21.3 between 4 July and 8 July. On Kalshi, Switzerland nearly tripled from 0.9 to 2.3, the most dramatic percentage move in the winner market across the same period. Both moves were driven by specific results: Spain's ongoing clean-sheet run and Switzerland's first quarter-final appearance since 1954.

Who is the favorite for the semi-finals? (world cup 2026 favorites semi-final prediction)
France remain the overall tournament favorite, holding roughly a third of the Kalshi winner market at 34.1% and leading Opta at 27.3%. For the semi-final bracket, Opta's supercomputer as of 8 July gives France a 73.9% chance of reaching the semi-finals and Spain 69.7%, making a France vs Spain semi-final the most likely pairing at 54.7% consensus probability.

When is the semi-final 2026?
The two semi-final matches are scheduled for 14 and 15 July 2026. M101 kicks off at 2:00 p.m. local time (UTC-5) at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. M102 follows on 15 July at 3:00 p.m. local time (UTC-4) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The winners advance to M104, the final, at MetLife Stadium. Full match schedule and venue details are available on FIFA's official site.